Month 4, Day 66, 67 & 68 - 36-month forex trading challenge - new month.

A new month is upon me and the 36-month forex trading challenge continues in earnest.

Am I on target?
Am I where I wanted to be?
Am I learning lots along the way about the markets and myself? 

The answers to the above are no, no and yes, in that order.

I still have five trades open from month 3. Until these close I won't have official figures for the third month of the challenge, but my gut feel is that September will result in a drawdown.

Not hitting targets and feeling the whipsaw action of the currency markets each and very day is no easy thing to do, but I remain disciplined and committed.

I know what's possible from forex trading. In April this year I booked £11,680.88 in profit (a 23.36% return on opening capital for the month). The market is now testing my resilience and I need to remain strong. Fortune favours the brave and it's no time to throw in the towel.

I'm interested in the long-term game, and developing and fine-tuning my system. A system that can operate in trending and ranging markets. A system that as each and every day passes I get to know better and become more comfortable in executing.

Many of my challenges in the first three months of the challenge have been down to not following my rules, or not knowing my system well enough to be able to trade it properly.

I know there is no perfect system and that chopping and changing (the habit of the amateur trader) is a sure way to blow up any trading account. The important point is that I have a system that I follow to the letter and that this system wins more when it wins and loses less when it doesn't. Even if the system is then right only 50% of the time, I will make money consistently over time.

I'll be publishing month 3's results once all trades have closed and have already executed my first trade in month 4.

CHFJPY (T50S) closed strongly below the 200 SMA when the Swiss National Bank (SNB) announced that it 'is further willing to intervene in fx markets'. The news wasn't the reason for my entry. This was a signal I'd been stalking for a while and the news was simply the catalyst to trigger stops and see the close under the 200 SMA I'd been watching for.

Intervention by central banks or even the mere suggestion of intervention has the market on alert. The value of one currency compared to that of another has consequences for international competitiveness. Although any central bank should remain independent of politics, currency matters are often a political talking point, just look at President Trump's ongoing spat with the Federal Reserve.

As with any trade, I have no idea if this trade will move in my favour, but already have what I will do to get out if things turn sour clearly mapped out. This could mean taking a small loss only to see the market then turn strongly in my favour with me sat on the sidelines. Still this is part of my risk management strategy and my overall aim to lose less when I lose and win more when I win.

On the daily chart (see below) we are at the top of the weekly trend line and a strong bearish rejection of the 50 SMA looks very likely today. On the balance of probabilities, as highlighted by my trading signal, a fall in this pair seems much more likely than a rise.

It's been a weird start to the month. Yesterday I was sick again and spent the majority of the day in bed. This means I didn't do my analysis, and while I kept an eye on open positions, I wasn't an active participant and as a result missed at least one signal.

My initial target (T) on AUDCAD (T44S) hit and the majority of my open trades finished the day in positive territory. It goes to show that you don't need to over manage a portfolio to make money. Waiting patiently and avoiding the temptation to do anything can be just as important.

I'm back on it today and although I've lost a few battles, the war is not over yet.

It's now week 13 and I'll have detailed analysis on all of my trades in week 13's video once published on the STG FOREX TV YouTube channel.

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Is it really possible to turn £50K into £1M? Over the next 36 months I'm going to find out by trading my personal account with full transparency.
Follow my 36-month challenge to turn £50K into £1M.
Read my blog here: https://stgforextvforexchallenge.blogspot.com
Subscribe on YouTube here: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCyGySJ5IeDjq-DIJPU7nYvw

[Please note, the information presented is general educational material and does not constitute trading advice.
Trading foreign exchange (forex) on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for you or your circumstances.
Before trading forex you should investigate all of the risks, including the possibility that you could lose more than your initial investment.
It’s important to consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. If in doubt seek advice from an independent financial advisor.]