Month 2, Day 40 & 41 - 36-month forex trading challenge - trumped by Trump!
Well Friday (day 40) was a surprise, and not in a good way. In Portsmouth to visit the historic dockyard, which included HMS Victory and the Mary Rose, I was away from my charts for most of the day.
I had a number of positions on that unfortunately succumbed to a worrying trend in the currency markets – the (Donald) Trump Tweet!
Escalation in the ongoing trade dispute between China and the USA, vocalised by the US President on what is fast becoming his favourite communication channel, sent traders into safe-haven currencies (CHF and JPY), and away from riskier choices with close reliance on good relationships with China to sustain their respective economies.
AUD was a casualty and my AUD trades suffered as a result – I was stopped out in EURAUD (T30S), AUDJPY (T4L), AUDCHF (T5L) and CADCHF (T3L). With tight stops and a primary focus on my risk exposure across all open trades the damage was not too great, but I'm only human and have to be honest – it was a disappointing end to the week.
EURAUD (T30S) >
AUDJPY (T4L) >
AUDCHF (T5L) >
CADCHF (T3L) >
Day 42 has not been much better and appears to be the flip side of Friday's move. This morning I got a signal to add to my NZDUSD (T32S) short. This occurred at the top of the daily trend line and after a gap down, which was created on the week's open. This gap was bid back to create my FULL HOUSE entry signal.
I entered on the 6am close and out and about today on the Isle of Wight, missed the 10am and 2pm closes. I didn't miss much, as all was calm (possibly due to it being a bank holiday here in the UK) that is until Trump took to Twitter again to announce that China was back at the negotiating table with a desire for calm. This has sparked bids in NZDUSD, which is now putting my short trade under pressure.
Consulting my weekly market analysis spreadsheet, I'm reassured. The monthly, weekly, daily and 240 200 and 50 SMAs are all above current price action, and my IG sentiment indicator shows 74.6% of retail traders are positioned to the long side (I take a contrarian approach).
I've been stopped out of my USDCAD (T2L) long on the same reaction to the news today. This trade since entry had never really advanced, and I was on alert that things may be turning sour. My focus is on how much I lose when I lose vs. how much I win when I win, which prompted a tightening of my stop loss ahead of hitting my initial target (T).
This trade is another casualty of surprise news, but remember surprise news can and sometimes does work in my favour.
This frustrating 48-hour trading period, sandwiched by the weekend is no reason to change my system. The news will always be the news, and being impossible to predict will never form part of my trading approach.
I'm now approaching the end of month 2 and am extremely unlikely to hit target. This is not what I'd hoped for, but the last 40 days of trading have taught me many important lessons. Half of the battle is staying in the game to capitalise on the great opportunities when they come along – this is exactly what I intend to do.
As I noted in my last blog post, Nelson had it right: 'That perseverance in any profession will most probably meet its reward.'
I'm not for the giving up!
Is it really possible to turn £50K into £1M? Over the next 36 months I'm going to find out by trading my personal account with full transparency.
Follow my 36-month challenge to turn £50K into £1M.
Read my blog here: https://stgforextvforexchallenge.blogspot.com
Subscribe on YouTube here: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCyGySJ5IeDjq-DIJPU7nYvw
[Please note, the information presented is general educational material and does not constitute trading advice.
Trading foreign exchange (forex) on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for you or your circumstances.
Before trading forex you should investigate all of the risks, including the possibility that you could lose more than your initial investment.
It’s important to consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. If in doubt seek advice from an independent financial advisor.]
I had a number of positions on that unfortunately succumbed to a worrying trend in the currency markets – the (Donald) Trump Tweet!
Escalation in the ongoing trade dispute between China and the USA, vocalised by the US President on what is fast becoming his favourite communication channel, sent traders into safe-haven currencies (CHF and JPY), and away from riskier choices with close reliance on good relationships with China to sustain their respective economies.
AUD was a casualty and my AUD trades suffered as a result – I was stopped out in EURAUD (T30S), AUDJPY (T4L), AUDCHF (T5L) and CADCHF (T3L). With tight stops and a primary focus on my risk exposure across all open trades the damage was not too great, but I'm only human and have to be honest – it was a disappointing end to the week.
EURAUD (T30S) >
Consulting my weekly market analysis spreadsheet, I'm reassured. The monthly, weekly, daily and 240 200 and 50 SMAs are all above current price action, and my IG sentiment indicator shows 74.6% of retail traders are positioned to the long side (I take a contrarian approach).
I've been stopped out of my USDCAD (T2L) long on the same reaction to the news today. This trade since entry had never really advanced, and I was on alert that things may be turning sour. My focus is on how much I lose when I lose vs. how much I win when I win, which prompted a tightening of my stop loss ahead of hitting my initial target (T).
This frustrating 48-hour trading period, sandwiched by the weekend is no reason to change my system. The news will always be the news, and being impossible to predict will never form part of my trading approach.
I'm now approaching the end of month 2 and am extremely unlikely to hit target. This is not what I'd hoped for, but the last 40 days of trading have taught me many important lessons. Half of the battle is staying in the game to capitalise on the great opportunities when they come along – this is exactly what I intend to do.
As I noted in my last blog post, Nelson had it right: 'That perseverance in any profession will most probably meet its reward.'
I'm not for the giving up!
*********
Is it really possible to turn £50K into £1M? Over the next 36 months I'm going to find out by trading my personal account with full transparency.
Follow my 36-month challenge to turn £50K into £1M.
Read my blog here: https://stgforextvforexchallenge.blogspot.com
Subscribe on YouTube here: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCyGySJ5IeDjq-DIJPU7nYvw
[Please note, the information presented is general educational material and does not constitute trading advice.
Trading foreign exchange (forex) on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for you or your circumstances.
Before trading forex you should investigate all of the risks, including the possibility that you could lose more than your initial investment.
It’s important to consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. If in doubt seek advice from an independent financial advisor.]
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