Month 3, Day 45 & 46 - 36-month forex trading challenge - trade rollover and a new month begins.
Officially day 45 was the last day of month 2, but as I was travelling back from the Isle of Wight on Friday I'm catching up with trade updates today, which is officially day 46 and day 1 of month 3.
Friday was a good day with the majority of my positions moving in my favour. This saw me close out the month on eToro with a 9.86% gain. eToro factors in any profit or loss on open trades into this figure, which differs from how I account in my trading spreadsheet.
At the end of month 2 I have four open trades. These will remain open and count toward month 2 figures once closed (even though they will now close after month 2 is officially over). The rule is that if a trade is opened in any given month, no matter when it closes it forms part of the results for the month it was opened in.
This makes life a little difficult for two reasons:
Another option would be to close out all trades at the end of each month and enter them again on the first day of the new month. As I'm pyramiding into positions and managing my risk along the way this is difficult, it's also very messy and not something I'm in favour of doing.
Although month 2 is not officially closed, I can report that in my long account I made five trades in total – one was break-even with the other four ending up as losers.
On my short account I made 13 trades, four of which are still open. Of the remaining nine, I had two break-even trades, three losers and four winners. On the rollover positions two are fully protected with profit locked in, so it looks like I'll be tracking my c.50% win ratio achieved in month 1.
It seems I'm possibly a much better short trader than I am a long one!
Here's a quick summary of the four rollover trades (set in month 2, but carried over and still open in month 3):
NZDUSD (T32S) >
This trade is performing very well and holding under the 10 EMA. I've added once and with the ability to roll my stop loss behind the 50 SMA to its current level, have a risk-free trade with profit locked in.
The SIG. 1 levels (black lines) underneath current price action are of some concern, but given that the closest one is the 3-year low, I think we could very well get underneath it to test the 10 and 5-year low below.
If this trend continues, price could possibly fall even further. Beyond these levels, on the monthly chart it could be free fall down to c.0.5000 for a very profitable trade indeed (one that I will likely add a third position to along the way).
As always, if things begin to turn sour my clear exit rules will take me out in three stages (unless there is a spike and my stop loss is hit). This staggered exit is designed to get me out, while also keeping me in, just in case things continue in my favour.
EURGBP (T33S) >
This is the one trade I'm carrying forward that's not in profit. Hovering just above my entry point the jury is still out on where next.
CHFJPY (T31S) >
Another profitable trade where I'm fully protected with profit locked in. On Thursday at 6pm there was an S sell signal just under the 50 SMA and above the centre of the daily trend line.
What's disappointing and very frustrating is that a poor Internet signal on the Isle of Wight meant that despite a number of attempts to enter I just couldn't get in. As a result I missed the opportunity to add to this trade and c.70 pips, and counting, of additional profit.
That's the trading life and is one of the challenges of trading on the move.
This trade was entered on a GOLDEN GATE strategy, but following a daily close below the RANGE, this pair as I view things is now in BEARISH / TREND territory, where I can add using my FULL HOUSE entry criteria.
NZDCAD (T28S) >
This trade is very similar to my NZDUSD short, but is not fully protected. I'm watching closely for my exit signals should they show up to get me out swiftly and safely.
This morning to kick off month 3 I've entered one additional position and set a sell limit on one other pair.
GBPCHF (T6L) >
On the 240 chart (above) I missed the initial TREND entry signal (the 10 EMA crossing above the 50 SMA), but was given a second opportunity when price closed above the 200 SMA and the top of the daily trend line.
This trade immediately showed me an open profit (always a good sign), but there is some risk presented by the 50 SMA on the daily chart (see below).
The daily 50 SMA is inside my initial target (T) and could provide some upside resistance. I'll need to watch this closely and potentially move my stop to entry before hitting T.
Given that this pair is trading above three SIG. 1 levels (the 10, 5 and 3-year lows), I think it's worth the risk. Is there anyone left to sell?
USDCHF (T34S) >
On the 240 chart (above) and daily chart (below), price is approaching the top of the RANGE. The daily 200 SMA could provide upside resistance between my sell limit (if triggered) and stop loss.
Only time will tell what happens, but it's a valid signal and one I must take. If price advances and closes past the daily 200 SMA I can always get out. After all trading is not about what the market does, it's about what I choose to do.
Today is a bank holiday in the USA, so it could be relatively quiet as US traders take advantage of the long weekend.
I'm feeling pretty good about the start of month 3, but still have the ever-present fear of failure. This is natural in any endeavour, but the trick is not to let it stop you in your tracks. Fear for me has always been a clue that I'm on the edge of my comfort zone, which is the only place you can grow and develop.
It's still early days in the 36-month forex trading challenge and I'm still finding my feet. I think once I have a clear buffer of profit in place I'll begin to feel more comfortable.
No one said trading was easy and I know it's just a game of psychology. I'm aware of my fear, but I'm not letting it control me. Doing this is about seeing the bigger picture and knowing that no individual trade matters. What does matter is my performance over a number of trades and I won't really have a good feel for how my approach is playing out until I've reached 100. Since the start of the challenge on 1 July 2019 I'm at 40 trades, so there is still some way to go before things become clearer and I begin to feel more relaxed that my system is working.
Finally, the video of week 8 on the challenge is out and available to watch here.
In week 8, I was in Portsmouth to visit HMS Victory and the Mary Rose, before heading across to the Isle of Wight. I hope you enjoy and please be sure to 'Subscribe'.
Is it really possible to turn £50K into £1M? Over the next 36 months I'm going to find out by trading my personal account with full transparency.
Follow my 36-month challenge to turn £50K into £1M.
Read my blog here: https://stgforextvforexchallenge.blogspot.com
Subscribe on YouTube here: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCyGySJ5IeDjq-DIJPU7nYvw
[Please note, the information presented is general educational material and does not constitute trading advice.
Trading foreign exchange (forex) on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for you or your circumstances.
Before trading forex you should investigate all of the risks, including the possibility that you could lose more than your initial investment.
It’s important to consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. If in doubt seek advice from an independent financial advisor.]
Friday was a good day with the majority of my positions moving in my favour. This saw me close out the month on eToro with a 9.86% gain. eToro factors in any profit or loss on open trades into this figure, which differs from how I account in my trading spreadsheet.
At the end of month 2 I have four open trades. These will remain open and count toward month 2 figures once closed (even though they will now close after month 2 is officially over). The rule is that if a trade is opened in any given month, no matter when it closes it forms part of the results for the month it was opened in.
This makes life a little difficult for two reasons:
- I'm delayed in finalising and analysing performance for any given month until all trades have closed.
- In determining capital I can risk, which is something I do at the start of any new month, I have to take into account closed trades plus any profit or loss on open positions. This mirrors what I do in eToro, but technically until a trade is closed the money is not in the bank.
Another option would be to close out all trades at the end of each month and enter them again on the first day of the new month. As I'm pyramiding into positions and managing my risk along the way this is difficult, it's also very messy and not something I'm in favour of doing.
Although month 2 is not officially closed, I can report that in my long account I made five trades in total – one was break-even with the other four ending up as losers.
On my short account I made 13 trades, four of which are still open. Of the remaining nine, I had two break-even trades, three losers and four winners. On the rollover positions two are fully protected with profit locked in, so it looks like I'll be tracking my c.50% win ratio achieved in month 1.
It seems I'm possibly a much better short trader than I am a long one!
Here's a quick summary of the four rollover trades (set in month 2, but carried over and still open in month 3):
NZDUSD (T32S) >
The SIG. 1 levels (black lines) underneath current price action are of some concern, but given that the closest one is the 3-year low, I think we could very well get underneath it to test the 10 and 5-year low below.
If this trend continues, price could possibly fall even further. Beyond these levels, on the monthly chart it could be free fall down to c.0.5000 for a very profitable trade indeed (one that I will likely add a third position to along the way).
As always, if things begin to turn sour my clear exit rules will take me out in three stages (unless there is a spike and my stop loss is hit). This staggered exit is designed to get me out, while also keeping me in, just in case things continue in my favour.
EURGBP (T33S) >
CHFJPY (T31S) >
What's disappointing and very frustrating is that a poor Internet signal on the Isle of Wight meant that despite a number of attempts to enter I just couldn't get in. As a result I missed the opportunity to add to this trade and c.70 pips, and counting, of additional profit.
That's the trading life and is one of the challenges of trading on the move.
This trade was entered on a GOLDEN GATE strategy, but following a daily close below the RANGE, this pair as I view things is now in BEARISH / TREND territory, where I can add using my FULL HOUSE entry criteria.
NZDCAD (T28S) >
This morning to kick off month 3 I've entered one additional position and set a sell limit on one other pair.
GBPCHF (T6L) >
This trade immediately showed me an open profit (always a good sign), but there is some risk presented by the 50 SMA on the daily chart (see below).
Given that this pair is trading above three SIG. 1 levels (the 10, 5 and 3-year lows), I think it's worth the risk. Is there anyone left to sell?
USDCHF (T34S) >
Today is a bank holiday in the USA, so it could be relatively quiet as US traders take advantage of the long weekend.
I'm feeling pretty good about the start of month 3, but still have the ever-present fear of failure. This is natural in any endeavour, but the trick is not to let it stop you in your tracks. Fear for me has always been a clue that I'm on the edge of my comfort zone, which is the only place you can grow and develop.
It's still early days in the 36-month forex trading challenge and I'm still finding my feet. I think once I have a clear buffer of profit in place I'll begin to feel more comfortable.
No one said trading was easy and I know it's just a game of psychology. I'm aware of my fear, but I'm not letting it control me. Doing this is about seeing the bigger picture and knowing that no individual trade matters. What does matter is my performance over a number of trades and I won't really have a good feel for how my approach is playing out until I've reached 100. Since the start of the challenge on 1 July 2019 I'm at 40 trades, so there is still some way to go before things become clearer and I begin to feel more relaxed that my system is working.
Finally, the video of week 8 on the challenge is out and available to watch here.
In week 8, I was in Portsmouth to visit HMS Victory and the Mary Rose, before heading across to the Isle of Wight. I hope you enjoy and please be sure to 'Subscribe'.
*********
Is it really possible to turn £50K into £1M? Over the next 36 months I'm going to find out by trading my personal account with full transparency.
Follow my 36-month challenge to turn £50K into £1M.
Read my blog here: https://stgforextvforexchallenge.blogspot.com
Subscribe on YouTube here: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCyGySJ5IeDjq-DIJPU7nYvw
[Please note, the information presented is general educational material and does not constitute trading advice.
Trading foreign exchange (forex) on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for you or your circumstances.
Before trading forex you should investigate all of the risks, including the possibility that you could lose more than your initial investment.
It’s important to consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. If in doubt seek advice from an independent financial advisor.]
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