Month 1, Day 4 & 5 - 36-month forex trading challenge - trading away and US holiday.
Yesterday was 4 July – Independence Day in the USA and a national holiday. As such the markets were closed and not much happened.
I'm a chartered accountant and sit on the ICAEW (Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales) Council. Although I'm no longer a practicing accountant my finance qualification gave me a great start to my career and in addition to my degree in economics, a good understanding of how the word economy works.
Does this help me with trading? Well the honest answer is no, I don't think it does. I don't trade fundamentals and instead, rely on what the price chart tells me about human psychology at that time. For me, that's what good trading is about – understanding the psychology of the market and how my own thinking impacts my ability to take money from the market.
Yesterday and today is the ICAEW annual conference being held in Ascot. This meant a very early start yesterday, a long drive, which was then followed by a day of discussion. With only an hour of downtime before dinner there was very little time to check in with the markets.
Trading away from home is never easy, but it is something I do. On holiday nothing stops, and during holidays on this challenge I will continue to trade.
This situation is different. I've been unable to perform my daily analysis or check my positions every four hours. Yesterday was also a day of calm (US holiday) followed by today, which could very well be one of volatility, with non-farm payrolls at 1:30pm. Circumstances and conditions that could very well see me lose money if I'm not careful. I've moved my trailing stops in close (protection of trading capital is always my priority) and will wait until next week before entering any new positions.
In terms of the challenge, I'm 1.7% up with an open profit on both my GBPUSD and USDCAD trades. As the end of the first week approaches, I'm in a pretty good position.
I'm naturally hedged on USD – I'm long USD with my GBPUSD short, and short USD with my USDCAD short. Whatever the non-farm payroll number is and more importantly, however the market interprets and reacts, unless there is huge whipsaw action, the outcome should favour one of my trades.
On the GBPUSD 240-chart above you can see yesterday saw just sideways movement. There have been some bids off the bottom of the range, but there isn't a buy signal here for me. My stop has been moved in 20 points above this consolidation range and my analysis points to further downside momentum. I'm sitting on my hands waiting for the market to make its move.
The range bottom buyers will have their stops under my T target line, and we might just be waiting for the news to trigger these. Panic selling if these stops are hit could see a large move down (relative to yesterday's action) later on today.
My USDCAD trade has been frustrating to say the least. My target (T) where I take profit on half of my position was initially set at 1.3037. As you'll see in the chart above, the Z (6pm candle) touched this level, but due to the spread didn't trigger my buy order. This happens and was the reason that I moved my target up to 1.3040 yesterday evening.
What's both frustrating and surprising is that in eToro, where it's not possible to automate the closing out of a partial position. I therefore set my initial trade risking 2% of trading capital and exit this position in full when T is hit. I then have a buy stop / sell stop set to effectively add back a 1% trade set at this T level. Effectively, as I take profit on 2%, I initiate another trade in the same direction risking 1%. This mirrors what I do in my private broker account, but is a bit clunky!
Anyway, for some reason – in eToro the Z (6pm) candle triggered my 1% sell stop, but didn't close out my 2% position for a profit. This is somewhat confusing and I'm not sure can be down to the spread on the pair, but who knows? I'm now short 3%, which is one of the reasons I've trailed my stop loss in tight, so if the market does reverse on me, it won't cost me 3% of my capital.
This anomaly is one of the reasons that my performance results will differ between my private broker account and eToro.
For the purpose of this challenge it's my private broker account that counts. I use ETX Capital and will be publishing my long and short account statements at the end of the month to ensure full transparency.
It's going to be a long day, and with a 3:30pm finish here and the prospect of Friday traffic curtailing my drive home, I don't expect to be back much before 8pm.
This will delay me getting out the video content to my editor in Romania, but I'll do my best to get it across tonight.
Trading on the move is never easy, and trading on the move when you're not in control of your time is nigh on impossible. Sometimes it's best to accept this and stay out of the market. Without my analysis and ability to review my charts every four hours I would be effectively gambling, and gambling is most definitely not what this challenge is all about.
Is it really possible to turn £50K into £1M? Over the next 36 months I'm going to find out by trading my personal account with full transparency.
Follow my 36-month challenge to turn £50K into £1M.
Read my blog here: https://stgforextvforexchallenge.blogspot.com
Subscribe on YouTube here: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCyGySJ5IeDjq-DIJPU7nYvw
[Please note, the information presented is general educational material and does not constitute trading advice.
Trading foreign exchange (forex) on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for you or your circumstances.
Before trading forex you should investigate all of the risks, including the possibility that you could lose more than your initial investment.
It’s important to consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. If in doubt seek advice from an independent financial advisor.]
Yesterday and today is the ICAEW annual conference being held in Ascot. This meant a very early start yesterday, a long drive, which was then followed by a day of discussion. With only an hour of downtime before dinner there was very little time to check in with the markets.
Trading away from home is never easy, but it is something I do. On holiday nothing stops, and during holidays on this challenge I will continue to trade.
This situation is different. I've been unable to perform my daily analysis or check my positions every four hours. Yesterday was also a day of calm (US holiday) followed by today, which could very well be one of volatility, with non-farm payrolls at 1:30pm. Circumstances and conditions that could very well see me lose money if I'm not careful. I've moved my trailing stops in close (protection of trading capital is always my priority) and will wait until next week before entering any new positions.
In terms of the challenge, I'm 1.7% up with an open profit on both my GBPUSD and USDCAD trades. As the end of the first week approaches, I'm in a pretty good position.
I'm naturally hedged on USD – I'm long USD with my GBPUSD short, and short USD with my USDCAD short. Whatever the non-farm payroll number is and more importantly, however the market interprets and reacts, unless there is huge whipsaw action, the outcome should favour one of my trades.
The range bottom buyers will have their stops under my T target line, and we might just be waiting for the news to trigger these. Panic selling if these stops are hit could see a large move down (relative to yesterday's action) later on today.
What's both frustrating and surprising is that in eToro, where it's not possible to automate the closing out of a partial position. I therefore set my initial trade risking 2% of trading capital and exit this position in full when T is hit. I then have a buy stop / sell stop set to effectively add back a 1% trade set at this T level. Effectively, as I take profit on 2%, I initiate another trade in the same direction risking 1%. This mirrors what I do in my private broker account, but is a bit clunky!
Anyway, for some reason – in eToro the Z (6pm) candle triggered my 1% sell stop, but didn't close out my 2% position for a profit. This is somewhat confusing and I'm not sure can be down to the spread on the pair, but who knows? I'm now short 3%, which is one of the reasons I've trailed my stop loss in tight, so if the market does reverse on me, it won't cost me 3% of my capital.
This anomaly is one of the reasons that my performance results will differ between my private broker account and eToro.
For the purpose of this challenge it's my private broker account that counts. I use ETX Capital and will be publishing my long and short account statements at the end of the month to ensure full transparency.
It's going to be a long day, and with a 3:30pm finish here and the prospect of Friday traffic curtailing my drive home, I don't expect to be back much before 8pm.
This will delay me getting out the video content to my editor in Romania, but I'll do my best to get it across tonight.
Trading on the move is never easy, and trading on the move when you're not in control of your time is nigh on impossible. Sometimes it's best to accept this and stay out of the market. Without my analysis and ability to review my charts every four hours I would be effectively gambling, and gambling is most definitely not what this challenge is all about.
*********
Is it really possible to turn £50K into £1M? Over the next 36 months I'm going to find out by trading my personal account with full transparency.
Follow my 36-month challenge to turn £50K into £1M.
Read my blog here: https://stgforextvforexchallenge.blogspot.com
Subscribe on YouTube here: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCyGySJ5IeDjq-DIJPU7nYvw
[Please note, the information presented is general educational material and does not constitute trading advice.
Trading foreign exchange (forex) on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for you or your circumstances.
Before trading forex you should investigate all of the risks, including the possibility that you could lose more than your initial investment.
It’s important to consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. If in doubt seek advice from an independent financial advisor.]
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